Daily Audio Brief
~2 min · Iran/Gulf · Rachel
⚠ Day 97 — Diplomacy stalls, risk premium keeps bleeding anyway. Tehran (Araghchi): “no tangible progress” in US talks; Hezbollah rejects the conditional Israel-Lebanon truce, Israeli strikes north of the Litani continue. A tentative US-Iran 60-day MoU is on the table awaiting Trump sign-off. Iran + Oman publicly announce joint Hormuz management and IRGC quietly authorizes more transits — a meaningful “soft reopen” signal even as the Strait stays officially closed. Brent ~$94.7 (-2.0% d/d), WTI ~$93.2, war premium ~$25/bbl. The tape’s big story was DC Infra-specific, not geopolitical: AVGO -12.6% after FQ2 print as the Q3 AI guide missed elevated expectations; MU -7.7% in sympathy + memory-peak chatter. Quantum partially reversed yesterday’s rout (LAES +5.5%); AVAV +6.8% bounce on SCAR drawdown looking stretched. Portfolio Jun-4 close: DC Infra +37.8% (-2.4pp d/d, all AVGO/MU), Quantum +33.2%, Robotics +8.9%.
Diplomacy
• US-Iran: MoU drafted, Trump approval pending. Late-May tentative deal extends ceasefire 60 days, restarts nuclear talks, promises unimpeded Hormuz passage, IRGC mine removal, gradual sanctions relief in exchange for Iranian commitment to forgo weaponization. Araghchi publicly: “no tangible progress.” Read: standard pre-signature posturing, but Trump’s ambivalence (“don’t care if it falls apart” / “on the verge” in same week) is the binary risk.
• Israel-Lebanon ceasefire wobbling: Hezbollah rejected the conditional truce (demands full Israeli withdrawal + comprehensive ceasefire). IDF evacuated three south-Lebanon villages Jun-4/5 ahead of new strikes. The Lebanon-precondition relief priced yesterday is partially reversing — not a re-escalation, but the “deal-on-deal” optimism is thinner.
• Iran-Oman joint Hormuz management announced Jun-4. Less a sovereignty concession than packaging — but the political shape of a “managed reopen” is forming. Triple-urgency bill in Iranian parliament codifying full IRGC control still in motion (hardline counter-weight).
• Watchpoint: Trump signature on the MoU — if announced this weekend, war premium collapses toward $15. Failure into next week + Hezbollah-driven Lebanon flare = re-pricing higher; not symmetric.
• Israel-Lebanon ceasefire wobbling: Hezbollah rejected the conditional truce (demands full Israeli withdrawal + comprehensive ceasefire). IDF evacuated three south-Lebanon villages Jun-4/5 ahead of new strikes. The Lebanon-precondition relief priced yesterday is partially reversing — not a re-escalation, but the “deal-on-deal” optimism is thinner.
• Iran-Oman joint Hormuz management announced Jun-4. Less a sovereignty concession than packaging — but the political shape of a “managed reopen” is forming. Triple-urgency bill in Iranian parliament codifying full IRGC control still in motion (hardline counter-weight).
• Watchpoint: Trump signature on the MoU — if announced this weekend, war premium collapses toward $15. Failure into next week + Hezbollah-driven Lebanon flare = re-pricing higher; not symmetric.
Oil
• Brent ~$94.7 (Aug-26, -2.0% d/d) · WTI ~$93.2 (-2.1% d/d) · Dubai ~$95.5 (Jun-3 close). Brent-WTI spread ~$1.5 — still compressed. Brent-Dubai spread collapsed below $3 on the July contract (vs ~$9 in March), “dramatic reversal” — Japan’s METI switched gasoline-subsidy benchmark back to Dubai effective Jun-4. The paper-vs-physical gap is closing as the soft-reopen narrative bleeds the political premium.
• War premium ~$25/bbl vs $70 pre-war anchor — -$2 d/d on the MoU draft + Hormuz transit uptick. Track on track for a weekly gain in absolute price though, on the renewed-fighting overhang. Street range $90-100 absent full closure; $150-160 if Hormuz re-shuts hard.
• EIA June STEO Jun-10 + May CPI Jun-10 remain the set-piece pair. EIA already telegraphed WTI mid-$80s into H2 on OPEC+ supply.
• OPEC+ buffer: 3-4M b/d spare intact; Saudi/UAE bypass flowing; six straight weeks of US crude inventory draws still a physical floor.
• War premium ~$25/bbl vs $70 pre-war anchor — -$2 d/d on the MoU draft + Hormuz transit uptick. Track on track for a weekly gain in absolute price though, on the renewed-fighting overhang. Street range $90-100 absent full closure; $150-160 if Hormuz re-shuts hard.
• EIA June STEO Jun-10 + May CPI Jun-10 remain the set-piece pair. EIA already telegraphed WTI mid-$80s into H2 on OPEC+ supply.
• OPEC+ buffer: 3-4M b/d spare intact; Saudi/UAE bypass flowing; six straight weeks of US crude inventory draws still a physical floor.
Shipping
• Hormuz status: officially closed, Day 97, but soft-reopen underway — noticeable uptick in transits with IRGC authorization per El País + Middle East Eye reporting. Iran/Oman joint-management announcement gives political cover to a managed flow. No new incidents in last 24h.
• Insurance: AWRP ~1% of H&M value per 7-day transit (off March ~2.5% / extreme ~10%) but still 4-8x pre-war floors. Transit-specific cover still 3-5% of vessel value. Vessels with US/UK/Israeli ties pay ~3x. Underwriters Gard/Skuld still not writing standard hull war; US $20B DFC reinsurance facility remains the load-bearing wall.
• ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded; 57 loaded VLCCs in-Strait; ~29 of 109 trapped non-Iranian tankers have exited since Feb-28. The soft-reopen is real but rate of exit is still slow — crew-safety hesitancy is now the binding constraint, not pure insurance availability.
• Next thresholds: full IRGC mining, Saudi/UAE infra hit, US ground casualties. None tripped in last 24h.
• Insurance: AWRP ~1% of H&M value per 7-day transit (off March ~2.5% / extreme ~10%) but still 4-8x pre-war floors. Transit-specific cover still 3-5% of vessel value. Vessels with US/UK/Israeli ties pay ~3x. Underwriters Gard/Skuld still not writing standard hull war; US $20B DFC reinsurance facility remains the load-bearing wall.
• ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded; 57 loaded VLCCs in-Strait; ~29 of 109 trapped non-Iranian tankers have exited since Feb-28. The soft-reopen is real but rate of exit is still slow — crew-safety hesitancy is now the binding constraint, not pure insurance availability.
• Next thresholds: full IRGC mining, Saudi/UAE infra hit, US ground casualties. None tripped in last 24h.
Macro spillover
• CPI: May print Jun-10. April ran 3.8% headline / 2.8% core; Cleveland Fed nowcast pegs May at ~4.05% YoY, peaking at ~4.5% by year-end. Even with this week’s Brent easing, energy remains the dominant CPI driver — April gasoline +28.4% YoY, energy index +3.8%.
• Fed: target 3.50–3.75%. Prediction markets ~98% on hold Jun-16/17 — Warsh’s first meeting as Chair + dot plot. Consensus: zero 2026 cuts; Goldman now pushed first cut to December 2026; JPM flagging a 2027 hike. SF Fed June Fedviews (Jun-4) confirms sticky-inflation base case.
• Defense capex: Global ~$2.6T 2026 (+8.1% YoY); US >$1T (+15% YoY). Gulf air-defense pull (NASAMS/PAC-3/THAAD) still active; no fresh contracts on the tape today. Hyperscaler AI capex $700-800B continues to underwrite DC Infra — but Broadcom’s guide is the first sign the Street’s priced-for-perfection assumption is cracking.
• Fed: target 3.50–3.75%. Prediction markets ~98% on hold Jun-16/17 — Warsh’s first meeting as Chair + dot plot. Consensus: zero 2026 cuts; Goldman now pushed first cut to December 2026; JPM flagging a 2027 hike. SF Fed June Fedviews (Jun-4) confirms sticky-inflation base case.
• Defense capex: Global ~$2.6T 2026 (+8.1% YoY); US >$1T (+15% YoY). Gulf air-defense pull (NASAMS/PAC-3/THAAD) still active; no fresh contracts on the tape today. Hyperscaler AI capex $700-800B continues to underwrite DC Infra — but Broadcom’s guide is the first sign the Street’s priced-for-perfection assumption is cracking.
Energy adjacency
• TTF gas: Asia LNG / EU gas not meaningfully changed in last 24h — the Iran-Oman Hormuz announcement quietly relieves some Asia-LNG-tightening worry but EU NBP/TTF stayed range-bound. €50 TTF flag still in play only on a hard Hormuz re-shut. No material spillover today.
Portfolio read
• DC Infra +37.8% (Jun-4 close, -2.4pp d/d): the basket’s first real down day of the week and it was idiosyncratic, not Gulf-driven. AVGO -12.6% as the Street treated a 48%-YoY-revenue quarter as a guide miss — the priced-for-perfection AI-semis trade just got tested. MU -7.7% in sympathy + memory-peak chatter ahead of Jun-24 earnings. Read: the Nvidia→COHR structural floor is still intact, but the speed at which expectations have to be re-set is the new risk.
• Quantum +33.2% (flat d/d after Wed’s -10pp): partial relief. LAES +5.5% on Miraex + Wecan + Quobly + NIST validation follow-through. RGTI/ARQQ/QBTS stabilized but no clean reversal — the CHIPS-equity-stake dilution overhang is still pricing in.
• Robotics +8.9% (+0.3pp d/d): AVAV +6.8% dead-cat off SCAR drawdown. Defense sub-basket (LMT/TDY) still flat — diplomatic-cool cap on kinetic-hedge bid persists.
• Bid: Quantum-sovereign (LAES). Bleeding: AI-semis (AVGO/MU on guide reset). Cross-current: a Trump MoU signature would lift AI complex via rate-path optics while compressing defense further and accelerating AVGO-style multiple-resets.
• Watch: (1) Trump MoU sign-off this weekend; (2) Hezbollah response → Lebanon flare risk; (3) Hormuz transit-count trajectory (the real soft-reopen signal); (4) EIA STEO + May CPI Jun-10; (5) Warsh’s first FOMC + dot plot Jun-16/17; (6) does the AVGO guide-reset spread to NVDA/AMD or stay contained.
• Quantum +33.2% (flat d/d after Wed’s -10pp): partial relief. LAES +5.5% on Miraex + Wecan + Quobly + NIST validation follow-through. RGTI/ARQQ/QBTS stabilized but no clean reversal — the CHIPS-equity-stake dilution overhang is still pricing in.
• Robotics +8.9% (+0.3pp d/d): AVAV +6.8% dead-cat off SCAR drawdown. Defense sub-basket (LMT/TDY) still flat — diplomatic-cool cap on kinetic-hedge bid persists.
• Bid: Quantum-sovereign (LAES). Bleeding: AI-semis (AVGO/MU on guide reset). Cross-current: a Trump MoU signature would lift AI complex via rate-path optics while compressing defense further and accelerating AVGO-style multiple-resets.
• Watch: (1) Trump MoU sign-off this weekend; (2) Hezbollah response → Lebanon flare risk; (3) Hormuz transit-count trajectory (the real soft-reopen signal); (4) EIA STEO + May CPI Jun-10; (5) Warsh’s first FOMC + dot plot Jun-16/17; (6) does the AVGO guide-reset spread to NVDA/AMD or stay contained.
Risk Indicators
Hormuz Status
CLOSED — SOFT REOPEN
Day 97. No new incidents in last 24h. Iran + Oman announced joint Hormuz management (Jun-4) and IRGC has been quietly authorizing more transits — a real “soft reopen” signal even as the Strait stays officially closed. AWRP ~1% of H&M value per 7-day transit (off March 2.5% / extreme 10%) but still 4-8x pre-war; transit-specific cover 3-5% of vessel value; US/UK/Israeli-tied tonnage pays ~3x. Gard/Skuld still not writing standard hull war cover; US $20B DFC reinsurance facility remains the load-bearing wall. ~1,600 vessels / ~22,500 mariners stranded; 57 loaded VLCCs in-Strait; ~29 of 109 trapped non-Iranian tankers have exited since Feb-28. Crew-safety hesitancy now the binding constraint, not pure insurance availability. Industry view: full normalization not before end-2026.
Brent War Premium
~$25/bbl
Brent ~$94.7 (Aug-26, -2.0% d/d) vs pre-war ~$70 anchor = ~$25 premium — -$2 d/d on Hormuz soft-reopen optics + draft US-Iran MoU. WTI ~$93.2 (-2.1%). Street range $90-100 absent a full closure; BMI 2026 Dated Brent at $88; $150-160 spike risk if Hormuz hard-shuts. Asymmetric: Trump MoU signature snaps premium to $15 (Brent $85); MoU failure + Lebanon flare re-prices to $35-45 (Brent $105-115). EIA June STEO + May CPI both Jun-10.
Paper vs Physical Gap
Brent > WTI by ~$1.5
Brent-WTI spread ~$1.5 (~$94.7 Brent / ~$93.2 WTI) — still compressed vs pre-war ~$4-5. Brent-Dubai spread collapsed below $3 on the July contract (vs ~$9 in March) — “dramatic reversal” as paper rallies catch up to physical on the soft-reopen narrative. Japan METI switched gasoline-subsidy benchmark back to Dubai effective Jun-4. Gap closing fast; full MoU signing accelerates the convergence.
U.S. Energy Insulation
+1.2M bbl/day
13.6M vs 12.4M pre-war domestic production
SPR Level
~52% filled
~372M bbl / 714M capacity | 10yr range: 50-94% (358M-638M bbl) | Post-Biden drawdown low: 50% (Oct 2023) | Near historical floor
Supply at Risk - Global Snapshot
~18M
bbl/day at risk (Hormuz)
RESTORED
Saudi E-W pipeline + Manifa
3.2M
bbl/day diverted (Red Sea)
~44 days
SPR buffer at current draw
+1.2M
bbl/day US surplus vs pre-war
■ S&P 500 FORECAST: Probability-weighted expected return by Nov 1, 2026: -3% to +3% | Day 79: Iran formalized the Strait via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority — tolls up to $2M/ship in yuan/BTC, US blockade running in parallel. Trump signals "few days" patience window. Brent $108.09 / WTI $101.78 / Dubai ~$104.50; spread $6.31, war premium ~$38. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair into a 3.8% CPI / structural-expectations-at-19-yr-high backdrop — Fed minutes leaned toward removing the easing bias. The big tape signal of the day was the Trump $2B/9-company quantum CHIPS announcement: every quantum holding ripped (QBTS +33, RGTI +31, ARQQ +26), and AI-optics (GLW/COHR/ANET +5-6%) joined the bid. Diplomatic ladder is symbolic; toll regime is structural; portfolio engine is government-of-quantum + AI-optics.
15-25% Probability ↓↓
Hormuz Reopens / Diplomatic Breakthrough (DEAL PATH)
- Brent Target
- $80-90 by Q3
- S&P 500 Impact
- Recovery rally, +5-8%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- +8% to +12%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy down, consumer up
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi Beijing summit Thu opens China-brokered parallel track - US-China joint statement opposing Hormuz tolls already on record. VP Vance Thu: "progress" being made in talks. Iran-Israel-Lebanon talks resume Washington Thu (Lebanon track). 14-point MoU revival would still require Iran to soften on enrichment moratorium + Hormuz sequencing, or US to accept partial framework. Pakistan/Qatar mediators publicly hopeful.
- Obstacle
- Iran FM Araghchi at BRICS Delhi (Thu) accuses UAE of direct co-belligerence - first formal Gulf-state-as-co-belligerent claim - hardens Tehran's diplomatic position rather than softening. Fujairah ship-seizure Thu directly threatens UAE bypass route. Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians near border Thu; IDF responds with strikes + evacuation warnings. Trump Mon called ceasefire "on life support" after rejecting Iran's MoU response. Past framework attempts collapsed within days.
40-50% Probability ↑
Frozen Conflict / Toll Regime Persists
- Brent Target
- $95-115 sustained
- S&P 500 Impact
- Sideways, ±3%
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- 0% to +4%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy flat-up, defensives lead
- Trigger
- Trump-Xi summit + Vance "progress" framing keep deal track alive on paper but no breakthrough; Iran's UAE-accusation hardens posture; Fujairah seizure stays single-incident; rhetoric ladder doesn't translate to Iranian energy/enrichment strikes. Iran PGSA tolling regime persists (US-China statement notwithstanding). Hormuz reopens only selectively (Qatar LNG-style permits). Israel-Lebanon front grinds - Hezbollah drone wounds Israeli civilians Thu, IDF strikes + evacuation warnings, expanded ground op preparation continues. Slow attrition without Iranian infra strikes. Aramco's 2027-stability warning underwrites sustained $95-115 band.
30-40% Probability ↑
Escalation / Infrastructure Hits
- Brent Target
- $130-150+
- S&P 500 Impact
- -10-15% correction
- S&P 500 by Nov 1
- -8% to -15%
- Sector Rotation
- Energy spikes, broad selloff
- Trigger
- Fujairah ship-seizure Thu opens UAE-east-coast bypass route to attack; Iran's BRICS-Delhi accusation of UAE direct co-belligerence sets predicate for further UAE-Iran kinetic exchange. If a second/third Fujairah-area incident follows, ADNOC export terminal directly exposed. Netanyahu "dismantled" + ground-op rhetoric still on table; Israel coordinating contingency strikes vs Iran energy/officials with US (CNN). Hezbollah drone-on-Israeli-civilians threshold crossed Thu. Russia rearming Iran via Caspian (ISW). Kharg strike / Houthi Bab al-Mandeb closure / direct Iran-Israel resumption. Iran parliament passes Hormuz toll-law 2nd reading.
◆ WATCHLIST: Names researched but not yet held - grouped by portfolio. Each entry shows Moat / Valuation / Composite score (Moat×0.6 + Val×0.4, same rubric as holdings tables) plus YTD performance, the thesis, and the trigger that would move it from watchlist → portfolio. Composite ≥ 3.5 = buy on trigger. < 3.0 = monitor only.
DC Infrastructure
ARM $221
Moat 5 / Val 2 / 3.8 · YTD +100%
Custom-CPU royalty layer for Graviton, Cobalt, Axion; v9 royalty rates accelerating in data center.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
Trigger: pullback below $180, OR v9 royalty stall.
INTC $118
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +226%
Agentic-CPU re-rate has played out. Foundry deals with Apple + Google driving the move; Granite Rapids landed in the right workload.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
Trigger: pullback to $80 OR Granite Rapids miss creating asymmetric re-entry.
SMCI $32
Moat 2 / Val 3 / 2.4 · YTD +4%
AI server integrator - leverage to total servers shipped. Governance overhang lingering.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
Trigger: clean audit cycle + visible margin floor.
AI Robotics
KTOS $52
Moat 3 / Val 1 / 2.2 · YTD -30%
Defense autonomy (Valkyrie scaling to 40/yr by '28, hypersonics $400M '26 → $700M '27). Q1 strong + FY raised; market punished on Q2 guide + valuation.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
Trigger: FCF inflection OR P/E < 100x. Currently ~330x with negative FCF and recent insider selling.
MCHP $97
Moat 3 / Val 2 / 2.6 · YTD +56%
Motor control / microcontroller franchise - humanoid BOM exposure (every robot needs precision motion).
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Trigger: pullback under $80.
Quantum
XNDU → promoted to Quantum portfolio at 3% (May 15, 2026). Q1 print delivered: revenue +300% YoY, AMD CFD benchmark (25× CPU speedup), customer pipeline expanded (Lockheed, TELUS, Fidelity FCAT). Funded by trimming QBTS 25→22%. See Quantum tab change log for details.
QUBT $11
Moat 2 / Val 2 / 2.0 · YTD +19%
Lower-quality pure-play; basket already covers gate + annealing + photonic.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Trigger: needs material quality improvement (revenue traction or credible roadmap proof) - currently a pass.
Private - track for IPO signal
• Atom Computing - neutral-atom quantum; well-funded.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
• PsiQuantum - photonic quantum (competes with XNDU); rumored '26 listing.
• Quantinuum - HON owns ~54%, so indirect exposure via HON in Robotics.
• Anduril - defense autonomy; rumored '26 IPO.
⚠ Watchlist is a research pipeline. Not investment advice. Composite scores and triggers can change as fundamentals evolve - verify current prices and conditions before acting.
△ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE: All three portfolios benchmarked against SPY and QQQ since April 10, 2026. Returns are weighted by holding allocations. Data refreshed daily from Yahoo Finance close prices.
Cumulative Return Since April 10, 2026
Summary
| Portfolio | Return | vs SPY | vs QQQ |
|---|
⚠ Returns are computed from closing prices and reflect model portfolios -- no transaction costs, slippage, or taxes are included. Not investment advice.
⚡ DC INFRASTRUCTURE PORTFOLIO - FINALIZED: 15 holdings, conviction-weighted. $1,000,000 notional. Entry date: April 10, 2026. Thesis: Custom silicon, optical networking, power/cooling, and construction names benefiting from AI data center infrastructure buildout. ● LOCKED
Today’s Movers (│Δ│ ≥ 5%)
AVGO -12.59%
FQ2 beat (rev $22.2B, +48% YoY) but Q3 AI semi guide ~$16B came in ~$1.2B light vs Street and CEO only reiterated (not raised) the $100B+ FY27 AI target — classic sell-the-news after a 40%+ pre-print run.
MU -7.74%
AVGO-driven AI-semis sympathy sell-off plus memory-pricing-peak concerns and recent insider sales heading into Jun-24 earnings.
$1,373,264
Portfolio Value
+$373,273
Total P&L
+37.33%
Return
SPY: +11.43%
vs S&P 500
QQQ: +21.20%
vs NASDAQ 100
Holdings
| Ticker | Company | Role in Stack | Moat | Value | Score | Weight % | Shares | Entry Price | Current Price | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Nvidia | GPU/AI accelerator silicon powering DC compute | 5 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.0% | 583.1 | $188.63 | $218.66 | +15.92% | +$17,510 |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Custom AI chips (Google TPUs) and networking ASICs | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 9.0% | 242.2 | $371.55 | $418.91 | +12.75% | +$11,471 |
| APH | Amphenol | High-speed connectors and cables for every DC server rack | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 568.3 | $140.75 | $146.77 | +4.28% | +$3,421 |
| ETN | Eaton Corp | Power management: switchgear, UPS, PDUs for DC electrical systems | 5 | 3 | 4.2 | 8.0% | 198.5 | $403.00 | $418.61 | +3.87% | +$3,099 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Custom AI accelerator ASICs for hyperscale DC workloads | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 544.7 | $128.49 | $316.43 | +146.27% | +$102,371 |
| COHR | Coherent | Optical transceivers, lasers, and photonics for 800G/1.6T DC interconnects | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 7.0% | 227.6 | $307.50 | $421.90 | +37.20% | +$26,037 |
| ANET | Arista Networks | High-speed Ethernet switching for DC network fabrics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | 6.0% | 407.1 | $147.35 | $166.01 | +12.66% | +$7,596 |
| MU | Micron Technology | HBM and DRAM memory for AI training/inference | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 166.4 | $420.59 | $996.00 | +136.81% | +$95,748 |
| ASML | ASML Holding | Sole maker of EUV lithography machines for leading-edge chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 47.4 | $1,478.28 | $1,757.47 | +18.89% | +$13,234 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Dominant etch equipment (45% share) for advanced chip fabrication | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | 5.0% | 189.6 | $263.66 | $336.41 | +27.59% | +$13,793 |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings | Power distribution and thermal/cooling infrastructure | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 169.4 | $295.11 | $323.92 | +9.76% | +$4,880 |
| GEV | GE Vernova | Power generation and grid equipment for DC energy demand | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 50.4 | $991.32 | $963.33 | -2.82% | $-1,411 |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber and specialty glass for DC connectivity | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | 5.0% | 291.9 | $171.24 | $197.70 | +15.45% | +$7,724 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | DC GPUs and server CPUs; growing AI accelerator share vs Nvidia | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 204.0 | $245.04 | $523.20 | +113.52% | +$56,745 |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Dominant high-density power management ICs for AI GPU racks | 5 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.0% | 37.0 | $1,353.85 | $1,652.60 | +22.07% | +$11,054 |
Benchmark Comparison
S&P 500 (SPY)
$757.09
Entry: $679.46 (Apr 10) | +11.43%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
$740.61
Entry: $611.07 (Apr 10) | +21.20%
Change Log
Apr 14, 2026 - Fractional Shares + Live Prices
Switched to fractional share counts (1 decimal) for precise $1M notional allocation.
NVDA weight adjusted from 10% to 11% (DC portfolio) to correct weights summing to 99%.
Integrated Finnhub API for live price updates. SPY/QQQ benchmarks corrected to Apr 10 closes ($679.46/$611.07).
Prices update daily at 7:30 AM ET via automated cron.
Apr 12, 2026 - Portfolio Finalized (v3)
OUT: AMKR (3.0, weak OSAT moat), MOD (3.0, commoditized cooling), EME (3.4, contractor moat)
IN: LRCX (3.5, 45% etch market share), AMD (3.3, growing DC GPU share + Meta deal), MPWR (3.3, dominant AI power delivery)
Moat floor raised from 3.0 to 3.2. Average moat improved from 4.0 to 4.2. MRVL adjusted to 7%, ANET to 6%. Entry prices: Apr 10 close.
⚠ This is a model portfolio for tracking purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.